Tuesday ended close to flat for the S&P 500 and its equal-weight version, while the Dow lost 0.35%, the Nasdaq 0.15% and the Russell 2000 0.40%. Two-year yields finished unchanged and the ten- and thirty-year yields slipped, with the market still pricing Fed hikes for December 9 and March 17. The dollar index fell 0.4%, Brent 0.5%, gold 0.2% and silver 1.65%. The chip stocks underperformed again but bounced off their worst levels, while money rotated into the hyperscalers and software, and the worry in AI has moved from demand to whether OpenAI and Anthropic can come public on the timelines and valuations bulls expect. The bank earnings season opened with Q3 numbers that were fine apart from softer bond trading, and the market’s concern is that conditions are as good as they get. Williams’ remark that conditions do not warrant further tightening in 2027 did little for Treasuries. Wednesday brings ASML before the European open, more banks, and the September CPI at 8:30 ET, which lands after this scan. Our cycle model, meanwhile, puts gold and the long bond at the very top of its floor-side scale.
Three floor calls now carry the model’s full reading. The long-bond ETF, flagged at +67 on September 30 and +87 on October 3, has reached the bullish maximum of +100 with its stage advanced to a bear exit, the sellers step back and the decline no longer carries. The price closed Tuesday 1.6% above its October 5 low, its highest close since September 28. Gold, in its window since mid-September and at +81 with a bear exit on Saturday, reaches the same +100 with the exit intact, and its August floor call at the same reading paid 12.3% to the August 24 high. The Hang Seng holds its +100 with a bear exit and took the 24,281 mark named on Saturday with Tuesday’s close of 24,345, the third higher close since its October 8 low. The 74-day cycle that carried its July floor and its September ceiling is the one at its trough now, 41 days after the ceiling, about half its length later. The one reading that left the zone without paying is the BRICS ETF’s ceiling call, carried by falling cycles alone, which dropped to zero this week with the price 5% above its October 2 low.
What ties today’s board together is momentum, which has caught up with the floors the cycles called. Three readings at the top of the bullish scale carry the same stage of momentum, and the rate side backs them from the other direction, because the ten-year’s -93 now rests on four cycles that have all passed their peaks, so the yield cycles have turned. The euro and the gold miners enter the floor side behind the leaders. The one open question on that side is the Russell 2000, where the window stays open at +87 while the price closed Tuesday at its lowest since May.
Our daily analysis filters roughly 45 markets through a cycle consensus engine. Each asset receives a Consensus Score from -100 to +100, the model’s summary reading for a possible turn, where positive values mark potential cyclical bottoms (a time window where a decline could end) and negative values potential cyclical tops (a window where a rise could stall or reverse). Readings beyond ±60 enter the critical zone, the range in which the model raises its alarm for a possible turn. Let’s take a closer look.
