Friday split the US market in two. The S&P 500 slipped 0.40% to 7,562 and the Nasdaq Composite 0.91%, while the Dow edged 0.10% higher and the equal-weight S&P 500 gained 0.20%. October producer prices came in no hotter than feared at the headline, but the core measure ran above expectations and the annual rate picked up from September. Bonds found no relief in that mix. The 10-year and 30-year yields edged higher while the 2-year held flat, and markets still price slightly more than one quarter-point hike for December 9 and close to two by January 27. The dollar index rose 0.23% to 103.41, its highest close since April 2025. Gold held near Thursday’s close, its lowest since early October 2025, while silver futures fell 1.9%. Oil barely moved, as the IEA’s finding of a global supply surplus met renewed tension after an Iranian attempt to strike a US military installation in Bahrain.
The week as a whole tells a firmer story for stocks. The S&P 500 gained 2.5% and the Nasdaq 100 3.5%, and the semiconductor index rose 8.1% even after Friday’s 3.4% drop. Nvidia was the exception, down 12.8% in five sessions to 162.85, its lowest close since July 2025, as worries about tighter export rules and the funding of AI spending weighed ahead of its results. Long Treasuries went the other way, with the long-bond ETF (TLT) down 3.1% for the week. The metals gave back their early-November gains, and the junior gold miners lost 8.1%. The calendar ahead holds remarks from Fed chair Warsh on Monday, Nvidia’s results after Tuesday’s close, the minutes of the last Fed meeting on Wednesday and results from the large US retailers through Thursday.
Put simply, the cycle model now leans one way for US stocks and the other way for long Treasuries. It gives the S&P 500 and the semiconductor index its strongest possible floor reading, a sign that the cycles behind both point to the end of the recent decline. In both, the momentum gauge also shows the selling pressure fading. For long bonds the model keeps its ceiling warning, and the price closed lower on Thursday and again on Friday. For an investor this means the model sees the conditions for stocks to turn higher and for long bonds to keep sliding. The bond warning already has a first price answer, while the floor under stocks still waits for one.
The record behind both readings is recent. In our November 8 article the chip index carried a floor reading of +87, well inside the model’s alarm zone, at a close of 9,390, and it has risen 8.1% since. The S&P 500, which sat just below the alarm zone that day, gained 2.5%. On Wednesday the model warned of a ceiling in the long-bond ETF and named a second close below Tuesday’s 80.88 as the price answer to watch. Thursday and Friday delivered two, and the ETF now trades 1.9% below the close behind the warning. Wheat closed a full loop, because the model warned of a ceiling on September 30, the price fell 13.5% to Thursday’s low, and the floor reading now stands at the bullish maximum on the same 99-day cycle. Not every call has paid, as Nvidia, on the floor list since October 28, closed Friday 25.3% lower, and gold trades 7.0% below its October 14 floor reading. The model does not promise, it alerts, and this week several of its alerts met their price answer.
Our daily scan runs some 45 global markets through the cycle engine and condenses each into a Consensus Score, the model’s measure of how strongly the dominant cycles agree on a possible turn. It runs from minus 100 for a possible top to plus 100 for a possible floor, and readings beyond plus or minus 60 form the critical zone, where the model raises the alarm. A positive reading there opens a bottoming window, a period in which a decline could end, and a negative one a topping window, in which a rise could stall or reverse. Let’s take a closer look.
