On Tuesday the market broadened out beneath a flat Nasdaq. The S&P 500 gained 0.29% while its equal-weight version rose 1.14%, the Dow climbed 1.02% and the Russell 2000 jumped 1.65%; the Nasdaq slipped 0.02%. The AI complex started the session badly.
Beneath that tape the cycle board narrows to one group. The day’s thesis is that the metals have entered the floor window as a group, led by gold at the model’s bullish maximum, the strongest reading it gives for a possible turn higher, while prices have begun to answer from last Wednesday’s lows. On the bond side TLT carries a bear exit again, the bears throw in the towel and the downswing appears broken, at a reading just short of that maximum, while the long end of the yield curve keeps its warning of a top.
The record behind this reading is short and dated. The gold floor call reached the bullish maximum on October 14 with the close that day at 4,107.90, the low of this stretch, and Tuesday’s close of 4,142.60 stands 0.8% above it. Silver entered the floor list the same day at 55.55, its lowest close since April, and closed Tuesday at 57.71, 3.9% higher. The TLT floor opened on October 3 and reached the bullish maximum on October 14; from the October 5 low of 77.11 the fund has gained 3.9% to Tuesday’s 80.13, its highest close since September 23. The real estate round trip told on Friday keeps paying, the sector closed Tuesday at 270.44, its highest close since September 22 and 4.2% above the October 7 low, and the Russell 2000 closes a round trip of its own today, its ceiling call of August 14 paid 11.3% to the October 16 low and the same cycle now sits at its trough. The one call still waiting for its price answer is the Hang Seng floor of October 10, the index closed Tuesday at 23,868, 1.4% below its close on the day of that call.
Our daily scan runs roughly 45 markets through a cycle consensus engine and gives each of them a Consensus Score between -100 and +100, the model’s summary reading for a possible turn. Positive values mark a time window where a decline could end, negative values a window where a rise could stall or reverse, and readings beyond ±60 enter the critical zone, the range in which the model raises its alarm for a possible turn. Let’s take a closer look.
